Another page in the oil curse story

Another page in the oil curse story

By Opoka Christopher Arop

What really drives leaders in South Sudan to seek the highest political office? Is it the same story as allover Africa; to enrich a clan-click of tribesmen and cronies through legitimized corruption-oppression? Is it a hunger to honestly be recognized as a leader for the people, of the people and by the people, fighting to feed others before themselves? Is it as plain as Africa being a jungle of human populations; one must standout every time and make their claim to a resource, to an idea, to a reign of violence against those who stand in their way?

These are just some of the questions that perplex those that try to understand Africa, let alone the Republic of South Sudan. With massive oil reserves, the country is as poor as Kazhakstan, an oil rich country whose people are still crying “where is our Kuwait”, a grim reminder of the shocking but real realities of the oil industry, where governments like in South Sudan continue to depend on donations and handouts in the name of unknown and unaccounted for loan deals with members of the seven sisters, cousins of oil moguls: and in such a political environment, coups become the first day of the week, and bribes the first order of business, Friday is replaced with loyalty parades.

One United States President once said, “If passion drives you, let reason hold the reigns.” This statement alone may be used to describe in some way the turmoil in our country today. Now President, but former military operations tactician, come Commander-in-chief of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army Salva Kiir is no fit president for a country as volatile as this large pocket of Africa. According to the present American government and the same time many regional CPA guarantors Dr. Riek Machar is too ambitious for wanting power at whatever cost. United States has a heavy hand because of its interest in South Sudanese oil as a counter measure to check the influence of the Chinese. East Africa is too weary of the relationship between Riek Machar and his friend Joseph Kony’s LRA. Simon Mulongo, a Ugandan legislator and a former Director in the Eastern Africa Standby Brigade does not mince his words when he says Riek has continued to support Kony with food supplies among other items. On the other hand, the United States as has been with allegations of previous coups in Africa is seen to want a more able leader; some politicians allege that two congressmen flung by officials from the US embassy in Nairobi stood by Riek as early as his first coup expeditions in 1991.

So the questions are two-fold: is Uganda in position to sugarcoat its petroleum interest enough by averting genocide and restoring some level of calm in Juba, Malakal, Unity and Bor towns, or will a new government in Juba change the dynamics for the worst, for example, a Riek presidency which may see a diversion of a Kiir negotiated marriage with the new East Africa Community through a Uganda propelled Northern Corridor Development project including oil pipelines, refineries and railway networks to boost agriculture, energy and trade as well as address security threats from a unified force point of view!

The second question is about the now emerging American interest: With Republicans likely to come to power in the next elections and Obama worried about his legacy combined with the new military-politico diplomacy he has built around trickily-murky CIA operations, from international phone-tapping to drone attacks and covert military operations within Africa; the onus seems hell bent on the heels of the Republicans, many of whom have played safe winning cards during the early days of SPLA/M turmoil when Garang had to eliminate those he along with his American counterparts considered collateral damage in a game of cards__ the Joseph Oduho’s, Martin Majiers as well as military commanders.

While oil is rightly or not a curse in most of Africa, and for many years even in the Arab world and much of Latin America as well as parts of Eastern Europe; many people have pushed for this debate to take a turn for better; partly because they have observed how oil wells in the backyards of family ranches in Texas has transformed the entire mid-west. This is perhaps a reason the likes of South Arabia have been emboldened to do the unlikely: build a city in a desert, import snow and transform the lives of all their citizenry.

For many African countries the story is far from rosy. This reality in African oil industry is non-segregative. Many African despots in oil producing countries perhaps may be suffering much more than their majority poor. To understand this, one must delve into the politics of oil pricing. Oil is the favorite prey of speculators on Wall Street in down town Manhattan. Everyday oil that doesn’t exist is bought and sold. And this is big business for the seven sisters of the world’s oil industry; Exxon, Mobil, Chevron, Gulp, Texaco, BP and Shell. Even with the emergence of a new breed of seven sisters that includes Aramco of Saudi Arabia, Gasprom of Russia, CNPA and Petro-China all of the Peoples Republic of China, NIOC of Iran, PDVSA of Venezuela, Brazil’s Petrobraz and Petronas of Malaysia, the oil industry has remained as speculative as ever.

Xavier Houzel, an international oil trader, while a big player in the oil industry shares the same predicament with a deputy governor in Africa’s newest nation state, Republic of South Sudan. While Mabek simple cannot find the answers to questions he puts to visiting journalists about the poverty in his state [Unity State with the three largest crude oil producing oilfields in the whole of former Sudan], the lack of basic services, absent medical facilities, no tarmac roads, no electricity even in the oil fields that lay awash with the black liquid flowing in all directions. Xavier tells Mabek that, South Sudan does not have the power to decide the price of a single barrel of crude oil. He says the seven sisters and their mega marriages that involve mega dowries live in a world of virtual transactions whose sums of money are estimated as being five or twenty times the actual volume of oil that is transported, bought, sold and consumed.

This trend of course has a considerable impact on the price of oil itself. Because the whims of these speculators who often rely on magical mathematical formulae on incredible doubling-up betting systems change the price without any real bearing on supply and demand realities. [The situation could be different altogether, if for example, the government in Juba would have a say in the decision on how much is exported, how much is processed from within the country for domestic consumption.] Its one of the reasons we have sometimes seen the price of a barrel soar for reasons that had nothing to do with the market.

There is another disturbing concept or rather reality of those who determine the price of oil. They contend that peace in oil producing countries could lead to over-production and a likely decline in oil prices. So it is in the interest of those who set the prices of oil and its products, to have African oil producing countries embroiled in war after another, internal and inter-tribal disruptions of government stability.