The down to earth analysis

The down to earth analysis

The Global Threat

An excerpt

Let's start with your team's analysis Nadav.' The prime minister turned to the head of the National Security Council.

'Now that the war in Syria is over we believe that the Iranians will send crews of guerilla warfare experts to the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Their first aim would be to topple the PLO Authority, and hand it over to the Hamas movement. It will force us to act and with the breaking of hostilities they'll order the Hezbollah and Hamas Gaza to join in with missile launching on our cities.' He cleared his throat with a note of uneasiness, but went straight on. 'They'll be free to initiate terror attacks against our embassies and our citizens abroad.'

'There's only one possibility to prevent or rather decrease those threats.' The head of the army intelligence commented on his colleagues review. 'It's our estimation too more or less; I mean the possibilities described by Nadav, and according to our estimation we shall have to attack the Iranians' nuclear plants…'

'Have you a prepared plan for such an attack?' The prime minister turned to the army chief of staff abruptly. 'Do you really believe this is the right to do?'

'Yes I don't see any other way to prevent them from strangling us in stages.' The army chief of staff replied.

'I gave my word to someone not to take on such an operation.' The prime minister reminded the two army representatives.

'They're busy over there with their coming presidential election campaign, and our air force attacks won't last more than twenty four hours.'

'It's a war declaration and if you believe that the Americans will join in you're wrong.' The prime minister remarked solemnly.

'We didn't take the Americans into account in our plans, we can handle it without their help, and we've enough anti missile Arrow batteries plus eighteen operational Iron Dome batteries, to intercept their missiles in the atmosphere.'

'May I've a word?' The head of the external security service asked raising his voice. A short silence ensued and the army chief of staff and his subordinate watched the intruder with suspicion; they could guess that he is going to undermine their theories.

'To our estimation based on info that we've received from our sources during the last months; we aren't on the Iranians sights in the near future. We do agree with Nadav's estimation concerning the future infiltration of Iranians' crews of guerilla warfare experts to the West Bank, but right now the Iranians are concentrating their efforts in getting rid of the American fifth fleet task force, which anchors in the Persian Gulf.' He exchanged a curious look with the two army representatives, hoping they don't refer to his argument as a personal challenge to belittle what they had to say.

'The Iranians since 2003 proved to be very cautious, as long as part of the fifth fleet anchors in the Persian Gulf they won't dare to attack us directly. We may estimate that if our air force will attack their nuclear plants the American won't help us, but that's not the Iranians' estimation; it doesn't mean that they won't retaliate if we'll attack them, it will result in a war as the prime minister said. Now the Iranians' policy of threats is intended to enforce their demands and achieve their goals without hostilities, and they intend to threaten the US weak administration before a new president will be elected…'

'Do you really believe that the Iranians will frighten the Americans and succeed to force them to pull out their fleet?' The chief of staff barged in angrily. 

'Yes I do believe it! Haven't the Americans backed off when they'd to bombard Syria in 2013? Haven't they let the Iranians reach nuclear capability, and haven't they let down the Ukrainians? So in our estimation the Americans will let down their rich allies, the United Arab Emirates!' His last words fell on the ears of all his colleagues including the prime minister like the explosion of a demolition charge right in their midst.

'So what should we do, according to your team's analysis?' The prime minister asked.

'We've to prevent as much as we can the infiltration of Iranian subversive crews to the West Bank, and be ready to any developments up to the end of the presidential elections in the US.'

'Don't you think that they'll try to make their move against us before the presidential elections in the US? They know just like us that the next US president will be a republican.' The prime minister wondered with a note of disbelief.

'Their main problem is the fifth fleet if they'll succeed to persuade the Americans to order their warships to pull out; they'll be free to establish their hegemony on the entire region.'

'I don't agree with every word said in that last analysis,' the foreign minister joined the discussion. 'But we also believe that the Iranians' priorities are elsewhere, meanwhile of course and attacking them now would be a grave mistake.

'Yes that's right!' The prime minister agreed with him. 'We've to wait and check meticulously the situation every day and every hour… We'll meet to assess the situation's developments more frequently, from now on.'

© Haim Kadman 2014 " all rights reserved.

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[Tomás Ó C..]

Its a mess, the middle east, with fanaticism on all sides...