Civic Leader Sounds Customary Warning Despite Inactive 2017 Hurricane Season Forecast

With two weeks to go before the start of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, which has been forecasted to be less active than 2016’s, civic leader Joe Issa is already sounding his customary warning for Jamaicans to begin preparations for the likelihood of a major weather system making landfall, stating “it does not have to be big to be dangerous.”

“We must start preparations now that the season is upon us and act upon the recommendations of the authorities; that goes for those living in flood-prone areas, river banks and hilly areas susceptible to landslides, and that’s in addition to securing roofs, windows, vital documents and files, and stocking with food and other essential supplies.

“The truth of the matter is that it is never certain initially, whether a hurricane will make landfall at a particular location, but this becomes more certain as it draws nearer, so we have to be prepared early and not wait until we know for sure that it is going to hit, as by then, it may be too late to start preparing…that to me is the logic behind early preparation,” said Issa, past presidents advisory committee member of the St. Ann Chamber of Commerce.

Stating that all incoming weather systems must be treated with respect without exception, Issa recalls the extensive damage caused by a simple trough in Dominica, where several people lost their lives, and hundreds were displaced by flood waters and landslides.

Issa, who is executive chairman of Cool Corp, also cited the considerable damage done to Jamaica by category-one Hurricane Sandy, as people were caught unprepared because they undermined its strength.

 

As for the big weather systems to have hit Jamaica’s 947 communities, over a third of which are considered highly vulnerable, Issa referenced the onslaught by Hurricane Gilbert, saying “we must never let our memory go with the wind.”  

According to the website, Hurricaneville, some of the most notable hurricanes recorded since Jamaica’s independence in 1962 include: Flora on October 5-7, 1963; Allen on August 4-7, 1980; and the infamous Gilbert on September 12, 1988 which left 25 percent of the population homeless, almost every home without electricity and 45 people dead.

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere. The season officially begins each year on June 1 and ends November 30.

A hurricane season may or may not be predicted to be active based on a combination of factors including a possible transition to La Nina conditions as well as uncertainty about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), according to Wikipedia

The major agencies involved in forecasting the number and strength of hurricanes each year include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). 

In cases where a less-than-active hurricane season is forecasted, such as this year’s, which is expected to be less active than 2016’s, Issa believes “we still need to be guarded.

Issa finds support in Tyler Stanfield’s WunderBlog, in which Stanfield warns that “you should not keep your guard down. An inactive hurricane season can just as easily have a major hurricane make landfall as much as any other season, and this forecast should not be taken as a reason to write off the season. It only takes one to make a quiet season a bad season.”