What Are The New Covid-19 Variants and Are They More Dangerous?

A story I did for a newspaper.

What Are The New Covid-19 Variants and Are The More Dangerous?

Attention is now being paid to genetic mutations of the covid-19 virus, or variants, that are now emerging in various parts of the world. Many of these variants are more contagious than the standard covid-19 virus, sometimes up to 70% more so, and a few could be more deadly.

One of the first variants to surface was the Brazilian Variant, or P.1. This was first sequenced in the Brazilian city of Manaus in July. The city had recently suffered a covid-19 surge and was prepared and ready for a second surge, but the new variant absolutely devastated the city. Hospitals were overwhelmed in 24 hours and the oxygen supplies ran out. People suffocated in their hospital beds and at home. A funeral procession arrived at the city cemetery about every half hour.

The Brazilian Variant is frightening because it has a spike protein mutation that makes it more infectious. It also has an “Escape mutation”, also found in the South African Variant, which helps it evade covid-19 antibodies. Meaning that if one just recovered from a case of covid last month, you might not be immune to this variant. The data is still unclear, but some are reporting that 76% of Manaus Brazil had already been infected (enough for herd immunity) when the second wave from the new variant hit. Meaning that people were being re-infected.

There is no strong evidence that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines won't work against the Brazilian variant, but the variant's ability to evade antibodies, the escape mutation, might make the vaccines less effective. Moderna is working on a new vaccine, tailored to this virus, and to a similar one, which might be given as a third booster shot. This mutation may likewise affect the emerging monoclonal antibody therapies now being developed.

Another early variant to surface is the UK Variant, or B.1.1.7. This variant first surfaced last September in the London/Kent areas, and it is now widespread in Britain, Ireland and Denmark. It is in dozens of other countries as well, including the United States. In January, the CDC released a report indicating that this variant could be the dominant strain in the U.S. by next March.

The UK Variant appears to be more transmissible than the current variant and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson suggested in January that this strain may also be more lethal. The good news is that both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are believed to be effective against the UK Variant, although a study by Ravindra Gupta of Cambridge University showed the Pfizer vaccine to be slightly less effective against the UK variant in older adults.

Another variant to watch is the South African Variant (B.1.351), discovered in early October. This variant is interesting as appears to affect younger people more than the other covid strains. The variant is currently spreading in at least twenty-four countries and on January 28^th two people in South Carolina were confirmed to have it. This is bad news as the two South Carolina victims had no travel history, meaning that there was already community spread in the area. A new case was discovered in Maryland on January 20^th, again with no travel history. The variant appears to be more transmissible, but not more deadly.

Vaccines will still work against the South African Variant, but they may be less effective. Moderna says it's vaccine offers protection against this variant, but that the antibodies spawned by the vaccine were less effective against this variant in a lab dish. Pfizer just released a study showing their vaccine was effective against the South African Variant, but that it is slightly less effective against the variant.

The Denmark Variant was first sequenced in Denmark in March of this year. It is currently spreading in both Northern and Southern California and has been detected in at least twelve other states. It is not yet clear if this strain is more deadly or more transmissible than the current strain.

There is speculation that the Denmark Variant may be more resistant to the current vaccines, but more study is needed before a firm conclusion can be drawn.

Like all RNA viruses, the covid-19 virus is constantly mutating, but most mutations go nowhere. The mutations giving rise to successful variants bestow some advantage to the new strain over the existing strain, and this appears to be, in most cases, an increased ability to transmit the infection. And there is no reason why two random mutations could give rise to a virus that is both more transmissible and much more deadly. Random chance simply has not given rise to this.

The United States is hampered in tracking these new variants by our lack of the ability to gene sequence virus samples. So far, the United States has only been able to sequence about 0.32% of it's cases and is ranked 38^th in this effort among the developed nations. As of Friday, the United States has sequenced only 84,177 samples out of 25.7 million cases, while the United Kingdom, in ninth place, has sequenced 214,000 covid genomes, or almost 6 percent, of the country’s 3.7 million cases. Iceland has sequenced 4000 of it's 6000 cases.

As an afterthought, it should be noted that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine just coming on line is currently 72% effective in the United States, 66% effective in South America, and 57% effective in South Africa. Though this vaccine is less effective than the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines at preventing covid (both are about 95% effective), the Johnson & Johnson vaccine does have advantages. First, it is a single shot vaccine and the vaccine can be stored and transported in a standard lab refrigerator. No extreme freezing is necessary, as is the case with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. And Johnson & Johnson has the ability to make vast quantities of the vaccine very quickly. In addition, while it does permit more infections than Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, it does seem to keep everyone receiving it from getting seriously ill, it has an 85% effectiveness here, i.e., it will keep you out of the hospital.

In closing, we now have more monoclonal antibody treatments than we are using. The are now available outside the circles of the rich and famous. So if you are high risk, and you test positive for covid, you should probably request this treatment. It does seem to be effective, at least against the current common strain of the virus.

Reviews

[barleygirl]

I've been looking forward to reading this, since I've read your other reporting & found it to be well done. But this is truly one of the best I've seen from you, in terms of a well-researched piece. I try to read articles about variants all the time & come away knowing almost nothing more than I did. This article packs about twenty times more info than any typical article being posted professionally about this topic. It's so refreshing to read a report that actually gives me a ton of new info! So well-organized, too. Info like this can make people's eyes glaze over & that's why most reporting is so shallow, but you've parsed this & delivered it very clearly & easy to grasp (((HUGS))) Fondly, Margie